Thursday, October 16, 2008

Potential secret weapon to battle our financial crisis: A trillion dollar debt-to-equity swap

While heavily indebted American consumers struggle to make mortgage and credit card payments, a larger shift is underway. News from Tokyo indicates that politicians in Japan, America's "friendly" creditor nation, are beginning to consider investing the country's massive horde of foreign reserves, to "take advantage of the opportunities opening up around the world" during this global financial crisis we are in.

The largest foreign exchange reserves are held by China with $1.9 trillion and Japan with $1.0 trillion, followed by Eurozone countries and Russia, each with about $550 billion. Almost all of these largely U.S. dollar-denominated reserves are invested in conservative fixed-income instruments like U.S. Treasury bonds. However, as noted already in a 2005 article by Andrew Rozonov, who first used the term "sovereign wealth fund," the practical distinction between foreign exchange reserves and their more equity-like sovereign wealth fund counterpart has begun to blur.

In the earlier part of the subprime crisis, we saw high-profile investing of $21 billion by sovereign wealth funds (Singapore, Kuwait and South Korea) into U.S. financial institutions (Citi and Merrill). This week's closing of Mitsubishi UFJ's $9 billion capital infusion into Morgan Stanley is a private sector version of the same type of foreign investment. Given the, not billion, but trillion dollar scale of the foreign exchange reserves that China and Japan have amassed, any decision on their part to swap even a small portion of their fixed-income funds into equity-like investments will have a tremendous impact on the U.S. equity market.

Ponder this: The investments last January by smaller sovereign wealth funds in U.S. financial institutions helped to boost capital, but nevertheless Merrill is now being acquired by Bank of America and Citi's balance sheet is still under pressure. The U.S. government coordinated JPMorgan's acquisition of faltering Bear Stearns in March, but that did not prevent Lehman from going bankrupt in September. After an unprecedented $85 billion government lifeline to AIG last month, AIG needed another $38 billion just last week. Also, despite heightened government intervention in recent weeks--Paulson's $700 billion bank rescue plan signed into law on October 3, coordinated global rate cuts by many G-7 members and other countries last week, and the government's "no objections allowed" infusion of $125 billion capital into JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman, Morgan Stanley and other financial institutions announced on Monday--the economic outlook grows bleaker, people worry more about their jobs and retirement and cut back on consumption, and the stock market resumes its downward spiral while real estate prices sag further.

In short, each and every policy measure to date, however unprecedented and seemingly "radical" at implementation, has failed to stem the economic bleeding.

So, where do we turn at this juncture? Well, recall the proverbial "rich uncle," who is perennially forthcoming with money gifts when you are a kid, lends you the extra money you need for a down payment when buying your first house, and provides half the capital you need to start a new business. As our financial crisis runs its course, we Americans as owners of over-leveraged assets in our increasingly distressed U.S. economy really have only one place to go for the capital we so badly need. Because there is not enough capital internally within our national borders, the much-needed equity capital to stabilize our economy and restore confidence of consumers and among financial institutions must come from abroad.

Like it or not, for equity capital rather than just debt, American financial institutions, large corporations and our U.S. equity markets as a whole need to tap into the trillions of dollars of foreign exchange reserves on the books of governments throughout the world, and particularly the trillion dollar balances of each of China and Japan. Back in March, the House held a hearing on the role of foreign government investment in the U.S. economy and financial sector. More along these lines is needed.

My guess is that our equity markets will not find a firm bottom until cross-border government-level deals are struck to convert from debt to equity significant portions of the U.S. dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves sitting overseas in Asia. How about a trillion dollar swap out of Treasuries and into a broad-based equity index like the S&P 500?

A substantial increase in foreign ownership of the American economy is probably a lot closer than we think.

7 Comments:

Blogger Johnny said...

This is certainly the most logical conclusion. However, the US is not out of ammo quite yet. What took the US so long was an ideological aversion to government interference with the private sector. If you read about the run up to 1929, it was the same ideology that governed the administration back then.

On another note, has this year changed your view of a strict "BUY & HOLD" ideology of investing?

6:47 AM, October 17, 2008  
Anonymous Andrew Knight said...

Hi Lloyd,

I'm emailing you in regards to an email I sent to you last month about a partnership, have you had a chance to think about it?

If you have any questions or would more information, please advise me and we can go from there.

Kind Regards,
Andrew Knight.
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Asia-Pacific Region

OMG.com.au Pty Ltd
P: (+617) 3368 2666
E: andrew.knight@omg.com.au

6:04 PM, October 23, 2008  
Blogger Vikram P said...

Dear Lloyd,

Thanks for your great post on sovereign wealth funds hunting for investments in the United States. Your post made for interesting reading and discussion.

My name is Vikram and I work for Wikinvest.com, an investing wiki with research about companies like those you blog about and concepts like oil prices and the credit crunch.

I've been approaching top bloggers identified by our business development team about the Wikinvest Wire, a traffic-boosting, invitation-only blogwire for investing and finance blogs. We launched the Wire in early October and all of our Wire members have seen a significant jump in traffic and benefited from links to their blog showing up on other blogs and Wikinvest.

If you're interested, do get in touch with me at vikram [at] wikinvest [dot] com.

Have a great day ahead!

Vikram

9:18 PM, October 27, 2008  
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